I am asked this question all the time: “I just booked a trip to XYZ for $xxx.xx, is that a good deal?” It is a difficult question to answer, but hopefully the following will help you understand ticket prices and find the best price on airfare.
Searching For The Best Price On Airfare
Airlines are constantly changing prices. Often, I will load google flights, find a ticket for one price, and when I click to book the flight, the price has changed. Why did the price change so rapidly? In order to answer this question, we have to understand how the airlines “release” or sell seats. On each flight an airline releases a certain number of seats per fare code.
What Are Fare Codes?
Fare codes are the letters associate with the price paid. For example, when you book an economy ticket you may see Economy (O). The “O” represents the fare code. Each fare code has a certain set of limitations associated with the fare. Each airline should have a list of fare codes offered, limitations, and mileage accrual to help you better understand what you are actually paying for. Additionally, sites like ExpertFlyer allow you to see how many of these seats in a fare class are open at a given time.
How Is Inventory Released?
As time passes, the airline will release different fare codes in a fairly unpredictable process. When booking with American, “O” and “Q” fares are the lowest, and come with the most restrictions. The tickets must be purchased 21 days prior to flying and are non-refundable. If the airline chooses to release “O” inventory for a flight and you happen to purchase that fare class, then you did get the lowest price, but likewise if you purchased a ticket with a higher fare class, you did not get the lowest possible price. The tricky part is that it is nearly impossible to predict when an airline will release certain inventory.
For example, A Friday evening flight from A to B might never have available “O” class inventory. The airline most likely has another less desirable flight where that class is available, but will never open up the lower fare class on the most popular flight of the day. Often the airline may only open up one or two of these low fare class seats. It all depends on what the airline chooses to do!
Timing Is Everything!
One example I came across was a flight from Chicago to Phoenix on American. At one point it was possible to book a flight from ORD-PHX for $81 round trip. After about 15 minutes from the time the airline released the seats, the fare class was sold out! If you wanted to get on that same exact plane, at the same exact time, you’d now had to pay $119. Still, quite cheap, but not quite as great as the $81.00.
Every airline lets you know what fare class you are booking into when you select flights, so if you want to know if you are getting the ‘best’ price, compare the letter of fare class you are purchasing to the airlines fare code chart. Typically, the lowest fare class, has a restriction of a 21 day advance purchase and are non-refundable. So, if you are purchasing a ticket within 21 days of departure chances are you will never find a better price, but if you are looking for a ticket for a trip a month out or more, make sure to check prices often and chances are you’ll find a price that you are satisfied with.
Wait Till The Last Minute?
For a recent trip I had to get from LAX back to ORD. 21+ days prior to departure the cost of the ticket was over $170! I checked back repeatedly and could not find a better price. Then, just 7 days prior to departure, the airline released several cheap seats for just $117. I took a chance waiting until the last minute, but it paid off. If you are going to wait till the last minute, you must be willing to pay the price. I try to keep a stash of miles handy in case I need to use them for a one way flight. For American Airlines, I keep a small(ish) stash of British Airways miles to pay for short domestic positioning flights.
Final Thoughts
Airfare is often unbelievably unpredictable. In order to find the “best price” I recommend learning your airline of choice’s fare codes. Learning the fare codes will help you understand the rules associated with each code. Fare codes will also help you understand if you’re buying the lowest possible code or one slightly higher. This way, if you find the lowest possible fare code for sale, you know you are getting the ‘best’ price.
Warning: Legacy carriers have recently introduced “basic economy” fares. These fares a often the cheapest option, but come with severe limitations. In many instances, it may be better to spend a few more dollars up front to avoid the limitations of basic economy fares.
